pamichai
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How the K-shaped economy explains why it feels like we are in a recession
Some economists, like Pascal Michaillat at the University of California, Santa Cruz, pay special attention to labor market indicators to get a better sense of whether the economy has entered a recession. Michaillat said he looks at labor market data because this is the same data you’d want to use to look at whether we’re…
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Is the US already in a recession?
Pascal Michaillat, professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz and a research associate at the NBER, estimates a 71 % probability that the US economy was already in recession in May.
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As investors fret over a coming recession, a UC Santa Cruz economist says it has already begun
U.S. financial markets have been in turmoil for weeks, as investors debate whether President Trump's trade war and falling consumer confidence could trigger a full-blown recession. But a UC Santa Cruz economist says that a model he helped develop, which is attracting growing attention, shows that the economy is already in a recession and has been for nearly a…